Just like salt, absolutely no one can do without sugar. Two main sources of sugar are sugarcane and beet. 80% of total sugar comes from sugarcane. Just like rice and wheat, sugar is an agro commodity produced everywhere. Sugarcane or beet sugar is produced by 110 countries but major share of sugar output (about 70%) comes from top 10 sugar producing countries. Brazil, India, China, United states, Mexico, Russia, Pakistan, France, Thailand and Australia are those top ten producers of sugar.
Sugar industry transformation
Sugar industry produces food in the form of sugar but what else does it produce? Answer to this very question presents information about transformation of sugar industry. Sugar industry provides energy. Electricity can be produced as a byproduct of sugar production. Biggest source of biofuel is sugar-based ethanol. It is believed that electricity or biofuel production can help solve sustainability issues of sugar industry.
Consumption acceleration to deceleration
During the period between 2001 and 2018, sugar consumption increased and average annual increase was 2.01%. If rise in sugar consumption had not decelerated in second half of second decade of this century then average consumption rise would have been considerably more. Reasons for acceleration in sugar demand are growth in population, rise in per capita income and prices of alternate sweeteners compared to price of sugar. Main reason for deceleration in sugar demand is health concerns. More and more people are becoming diabetic and even more are becoming health conscious. Added sugar is regarded as slow poison by some nowadays. People have started avoiding dietary products that are loaded with added sugar. Sales of sugary soft drinks, fruit juices, cakes, cookies and candy are showing a declining trend. This has decelerated sugar demand. Today people have become well aware of correlation between sugar consumption and obesity and also diabetes. Research has proved that added sugar can cause cardiovascular disease and death due to heart disease. Metabolic reaction of body to alcohol and sugar is similar, so, high consumption of sugar can cause fatty liver disease, which causes diabetes (heart disease causing ailment). Too much added sugar can cause high blood pressure that causes heart disease. In general adults tend to intake 24 tablespoons of sugar daily but researches have inferred that adult women should consume at most 6 tablespoons and adult men should consume no more than nine tablespoons of sugar. Such researches are decelerating sugar demand.
Thailand has been second only to Brazil for nine consecutive years before slipping to third spot in 2020-21 marketing year, as far as sugar exports are concerned. As far as production is concerned, Thailand is fourth largest producer of sugar behind India, Brazil and EU and ahead of china. 3% Harvest area rise will undoubtedly hike production but rise in fertilizer cost due to Ukraine-Russia war will not let average yield to increase as farmers are bound to cut fertilizer use.
Expectation from 2022-23
Forecast of global production is positive on account of rising production in Brazil, China and Russia easily offsetting Indian and Ukrainian fall in production. Export will fall on account of restriction applied by India on sugar exports offsetting rise in exports from Brazil and Thailand.
Fall in production of sugarbeet compared to 2020-21 will hit sugar production in US. Imports will also fall but not consumption.
Brazil is largest producer and exporter of sugar and its production is forecast to go up by 1 million tons as weather seems favorable. Favorable weather hiked sugarcane yield will make available extra sugarcane to crush. Shift to soybean and corn crops by sugarcane farmers will reduce area under sugarcane cultivation. 45/55 production mix of sugar/ethanol is expected to hold. Ukraine-Russia war has not impacted supply of fertilizers for current season and so production will not be hit. Exports will rise and consumption will not change. Bulk sugar exporters can rely on B2B platforms to export sugar from Brazil. Tradologie.com B2B marketplace is great platform for sellers interested in online sugar sale.
In 2022-23, Indian sugar export will go down at least by three percent on account of lessening of cane processing for sugar production. Exports will fall and recede to previous levels while consumption will rise to record levels. It is quite normal that due to record-breaking exports of sugar from India in 2021-22 exports will fall in 2022-23 on account of high base effect. India has curbed sugar exports by putting it in restricted category of export commodities. This has been done to control domestic prices of sugar and resulted in rising of domestic stocks at least by 15%.
Production will fall on account of sugarbeet farmers shifting to more profitable corn. EU food industry desires to cut sugar in products causing fall in imports. As there will be no change in consumption but fall in production and imports, stocks will fall considerably.
China is a sugar producing country where both cane sugar and beet sugar production is expected to rise in 2022-23. Favorable weather and incentives to beet farmers by beet millers compels farmers to farm sugarbeet. As COVID restrictions are expected to be lifted consumption will rise.
Production will rise marginally as land under cane cultivation is increasing and consumption is being jacked up on account of rising population. Exports will double due to surplus. Surging exports will restrict rise in stocks.
Production will fall, exports will rise, consumption will not change and there will be no rise or fall in stocks.
Rise in crushing of sugarcane will hike production of sugar. Increase in land under sugarcane cultivation will cause hike in production. Stocks will rise alongside exports and consumption.
In Egypt land under sugarbeet cultivation is rising and hence production of sugar will rise. Consumption will rise but imports will remain unchanged as consumption will be satiated by rising production.
Production will remain unchanged while consumption and exports will rise causing fall in stocks.
Production will go up by four percent. Sustained demand will hike consumption while stocks will go down. Imports will rise despite production rise.
Production will go up, exports and stocks will go up while consumption will remain unchanged.